March 3, 2007 is the date that Randy “The Natural” Couture faces Tim “The Main-iac” Sylvia at UFC 68 in Columbus, Ohio. That is the date Randy Couture wants to make history in Mixed Martial Arts. Randy Couture is no stranger to the UFC heavyweight division. He won the heavyweight title on two separate occasions. But that was in 1997 and 2001. In fact, his last two outings in the heavyweight division, both in 2002, ended badly for Randy. His conclusion at the time is that the fighters were too big for him. My conclusion was “now the greats can fight”. Randy was once able to outskill much larger opponents, but as the skill differences diminished, his success did as well.

Not to be outdone, Randy Couture returned, reinventing himself as a light heavyweight fighter. Once again, Randy was dominant. He was now an exceptionally strong and skilled light heavyweight and seemed to be in his element. With dominant wins over Chuck Liddell, Tito Ortiz and Vitor Belfort Randy seemed unstoppable. That is until his first and second rematches against Chuck Liddell. In those outings, it was Chuck’s top punch, not his size, that dropped Randy.

The question of March 3 will be this. Is Tim Sylvia too big and too strong for Randy Couture? Randy will be 43 years old and if he comes into this fight in good shape, he will probably weigh around 215 pounds. By contrast, Tim Silvia will be 30 years old and will need to drop some weight to break into the UFC heavyweight limit of 265 pounds.

Tim Sylvia is primarily a striker, he uses his huge reach advantage well (Tim is 6’8″ tall). He stays outside and shreds opponents with his jab and waits for one to get into his range, then throws a big Tim also has excellent spread and his extreme height makes it difficult for even very good fighters, including Jeff Monson, to turn him around.In his most recent fight with Jeff Monson, Tim even showed some decent groundwork by almost subdue Monson.

When the cage closes and the fight begins, we can expect the usual from Tim Sylvia. He will stay well outside, waiting for Randy to shoot and ready to defend himself. Randy is an excellent fighter with almost Olympic credentials. We can expect Randy Couture to throw some long punches, trying to get into Tim’s range (without getting hit) to take him down.

About a minute into the fight, Randy will attempt his first shot, throwing a two-punch combination to confuse Sylvia, and then set his underhooks instead. Randy will want to keep an eye on Tim’s knees from this position, as his size disadvantage will leave his head in just the right place for a devastating knee strike. If all the stars are aligned correctly, Randy will get the takedown on him, but it’s too soon for Randy to finish off Tim. Tim is too strong to submit, grind and punch, or hold down for long at the start of the first round. Tim will get up or the referee will stand him up.

This is where my crystal ball gets a bit fuzzy. Randy will now have some confidence that he can keep Silvia down and Silvia will have some confidence that he can get up if Randy knocks him down. He looks for Silvia to get ahead a bit more with punches, even attempting a kick to the head. Head kicks are nice, but Randy Couture is not Tra Telligman and high kicks on Randy Couture could spell disaster for Tim Silvia. I think Randy will grab a leg on one of these attempts and take Tim down again, this time it will be worse for Sylvia.

As the fight progresses, Tim’s lack of cardio will start to show and Randy will become more and more dominant.

In the final analysis, I don’t think Tim’s punches hit Randy as fast or as hard as Chuck Liddell’s. I also don’t think Tim’s takedown defense is as good as Chuck’s. I’m going to predict that Randy Couture will win this fight either late in the first or second round via referee stoppage or submission.

Ladies and gentlemen, the new heavyweight champion of the world, Randy “The Natural” Couture.