One way to find good horse racing odds is to list the contenders in a race and then assign fair value odds to each of the contenders. There are several ways to separate the phonies from the ponies. I recommend a good, deep handicap, using all the factors that need to be considered before a bet. That can take a long time, but if you’re going to invest a lot of money in a horse or horses, you need to have a solid opinion based on how each broker compares to the field and how the odds stack up.

Fair value odds simply mean that the probability of a horse winning means that the amount paid out multiplied by the projected number of wins would offset the cost of the bets and also make a profit. For example, if you think a horse has a 30% chance of winning, that’s three wins out of ten races. A base bet of $2 times ten would be $20. Three wins would have to return your $20 along with a win. That means the horse would have to be 5-2 or better and pay $7 to win money.

By developing your own morning line or fair value odds and watching the board closely until the last minute or as late as possible to land your bet, you can search for the best value. Of course, this takes practice and knowing which horses are the real contenders is imperative. These are some of the things I look for when spotting true contenders. First, I look at the par time of the race or the speed figure and check if the horse has managed to get within two points of the speed figure in the distance.

Second, I like to see that a horse has won over the distance and on the track. I would also like my horse or contender to have raced in the last 40 days. Connections must also know how to win. Low percentage riders and trainers will burn through your bankroll faster than any other issue. You can set your own limits, but I personally like to see a jockey at 10% and a coach at 15%. Those numbers are minimal. These are just ballpark figures and the most important thing to remember about handicapping is that everything is relative.

I like guidelines, but not rules when it comes to evaluating horses. You must compare the horses within the race with each other and develop a hierarchy from the best and most likely to win to the worst and least likely to win. If no horse has come close to par, you must decide whether the race should be played. The same applies to any other guide you use.