There is no question that passing and running statistics are the predominant tool of choice for handicap players looking to assess team strength and point spread accuracy for a given game. My analysis is no different in some respects: Many of my situations are based on fundamental ratings like ROF and PDE that use yards per play stats to reveal situations that have been profitable off the line.

What is lost in all the attention directed at how well teams run and pass the ball; however, it is the fact that there are other equally important aspects of team play that can be just as predictive in nature as some of the more commonly used measures of team skill.

One of those areas that often goes unnoticed by handicappers involves statistics related to team penalties and as we will explore here, certain Type of sanctions can be a particularly powerful disadvantage tool in the right situations.

I’ve always found penalties to be an intriguing aspect of the NFL game and their effect is undeniable: who hasn’t felt the pain of an ill-timed penalty kick suddenly breathing new life into a series that seemed to have ended moments before with a spread? win all aim down. Mistimed penalties can cost a team a game in the blink of an eye and turn a margin winner into an underdog faster than TO can autograph a ball (in the end zone, of course).

In fact, I have traced the worth footage statistics since the 1994 season and penalty yardage differential (an average per game taking called penalties opponents minus the penalties called to the team in question) is the basis of another successful trend that is 78-14 ATS in the last 13 seasons.

While it is good to know how many penalty yards a team is averaging per game, or how many they had in a previous game, this type of analysis tells us nothing about what particular TYPES of penalties a team is being assessed and the actual manner in which the game is being assessed. The final penalty yardage total listed in the scoring chart was reached.

Is the team in question taking a lot of offensive holding calls due to a lack of size on the line? Or are they getting hit with a lot of pass interference calls due to a second-row CB forced to work due to injury? By separating penalties into more granular categories and looking at them by number of calls, rather than yards, we can start to get better answers to questions like the ones posed above.

Ultimately, most of the penalties called in the modern NFL game can be assigned to one of the following 6 categories:

1) False Start Penalties (FSP)
2) Offensive Holding Penalties (OHP)
3) Playbook Execution Penalties (PBEP)
4) Defensive Line Penalties (DLP)
5) Defensive Secondary Penalties (DSP)
6) Dumb Penalties (DMP)

The category this article focuses on is third on the list: Playbook Execution Penalties. This group includes any infractions related to the interruption of game calls. Examples of these include: illegal formations, turns, movement, snapshots, participation, substitutions and procedures; Game lag (in certain cases); Illegal forward passes; 12 men in the field; Ineligible receivers and so on. For a full breakdown of the other categories, see page 12 of the 2007 NFL Game Sheet Guide.

The league average for PBEP tends to be around 0.7 calls per game (per team). Arizona was worst in the league in 2006 for PBEP against with an average per game of 1.5 while Pittsburgh and Denver were 1-2 in the league with an average PBEP against of 0.2 and 0.4 per game respectively.

As a stand-alone stat, PBEP is a good yardstick for measuring the quality of a team’s coaching staff and also provides an indication of whether players are being used in schemes in which they are comfortable and have the necessary skills to be successful. It’s no accident that teams like the Steelers and Patriots have low PBEPA averages year over year, while others, like the Cardinals, rank near the bottom.

When it comes to handicap versus point spread, PBEPA becomes a useful tool when equipment with an extremely high PBEPA are examined

Since the 2002 season, teams with average PBEPA more than double the league average of 0.7 (> +1.5 to be exact) are lousy 168-213 (44.1%) ATS versus number. In the last 5 seasons alone, placing bets based solely on this simple strategy would have netted you $2,820 on a $110 bet to win back $100 on each game.

There is actually a second ‘Building Block’, or main condition that I like to use for this situation and that is: to include only games in which the opponent has a higher Defensive Secondary Penalty Against Average (DSPA). When this condition is added, the situation record is reduced to 55-110 (33.3%) ATS and earnings in the last 5 years jump to $4,950.

DSP penalties involve flags thrown primarily at cornerbacks and safeties, usually for defensive pass interference and illegal contact. The complex relationship between PBE and DS penalties is something that requires further study on my part, but suffice it to say that, for whatever reasons, they are firmly intertwined and the drastic improvement this situation gets when only teams with a highest average DSPA without a test of their correlation is included.

Completing this situation, there are two secondary conditions. The first specifies that games with an Over/Under of less than 38 will not be included and the second removes teams coming off their bye week (teams that have PBEPA issues perform better compared to the margin when they are provides an additional week of practice).

Here are all the details.

(Grades: ASMR stands for Average Margin Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the line, negative – weaker than average. DISD% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. % in weigh is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and RPS is the average spread of the teams in this situation. For more details, see page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheet Guide).

Situational Trend Summary #22 (Last Updated: Jan 15, 2008)

Primary conditions (building blocks)

1) Playbook Execution Penalty vs. (PBEPA) Average of > +1.5 per game.
2) The opponent has a higher Defensive Secondary Penalty Average (DSPA).

Secondary conditions (tensioners)
1) The team is not coming off a bye week.
2) Exclude over/under (OR) from situation statistics
ASMR: +0.2
% of housing: 56.3
Dog%: 52.4
DISD%: 87.5
Weight %: 38.8
ESP: +0.12
Best Teams: ARI(13); KEY(10); PHI(9); SEA(9)

status record
Overall (since 2001): 21-82 TTY
2007 season: 2-5 ATS
2006 season: 0-7 ATS
2005 season: 5-20 ATS
2004 season: 10-30 ATS

Last 3 results. Select in parentheses.
2007 WK15–MIA 22 BAL 16 (BAL-3.5) L
2007 WK13 — NYJ 40 MIA 13 (NYJ + 1) W
2007 WK11–PHI 17 MIA 7 (PHI -9.5) W