Trying to find a good bet in the modern world of horse racing can be difficult even if you are a good handicapper. While you may be able to assess the horses in a race by estimating the value in the pools and then get that value after the bell rings and the final totals are posted, it’s often difficult. Finding a horse getting fit is one way to find a value bet if there are other horses in the race that are attracting bettors due to recent efforts.

Understanding the shape cycle and using it with other factors is a tool every forecaster should have in their bag of tricks. The form cycle is the amount of time it takes for a horse to reach a certain physical condition. There was a time when almost every trainer would start conditioning a horse and then have him run several races to condition him to the best of his athletic ability. Only then would he or she tell the jockey to go for the win. As evidenced by the many horses that win layoff, those days are long gone.

Trainers still use breeds to condition horses and many horses need a breed or two as “tensioners” as they are called, however some trainers have been known to win a horse on their first try after a layoff. Just remember that even though the conditioner who can win on a horse after being rested may win 30% of those races, he or she still loses twice as many races on those horses. The hard part, of course, is knowing when the horse will be shipped and when he will be in the race for exercise.

The toteboard may offer some clues, but because there are a lot of people betting on the pots and some are trying to manipulate those pots, I would advise caution when looking at the numbers and that should be just one source of information. Here are three other factors that can help you understand if a horse coming back from a break is a good bet.

First, look at the horse. Is he fat? Do you have a belly? Or is he sleek, with a well-defined, speckled racing dimple under his fur? Are you alert, so to speak, in the post parade and paddock? Does he have his ears pricked up and does he look like he’s anticipating the race? In other words, do you have his mind on the business at hand?

Second, has the horse ever won a layoff? Has he shown that he can win without a turnbuckle? Finally, is the coach going to go up? If the answer to these questions is yes, the horse is a contender; if not, this may well be a conditioning run.