INTRODUCTION

The status quo becomes more unsustainable every day. Experts say the situation is more precarious than at any time in the last 75 years, when humans have lived with the dangers of atomic and nuclear bombs. Experts warn that the issue of annihilation is not if, but when it will happen, unless significant changes are made to the spread of these weapons and the systems to control them and prevent their use. The prospects for reforms are not good, but that must change. The obstacles are formidable but not entirely impossible to overcome.

This reality explains why most of us, including those present, rarely broach the subject. Denial plays a role, as does the fact that gun control is not a local issue. National administrations, Democratic and Republican, largely delegate responsibility for controls to the military and other experts. Jonathan Schell, in “The Fate of the Earth” (1982), pointed out that it is as if there is a monster in the room, and yet we have managed to divert our attention from it.

Fortunately, there are some well-regarded individuals and institutions looking for ways to reduce the risks that these weapons will ever be used and, in the more fanciful hope, that they may one day be retired.

TRUE WELLNESS

Yes, you are reading a REAL essay focused on wellness, a look at the positive side of life-based philosophy. My focus is promoting mental and physical wellness through the use of reason, the joys of exuberance, the disciplines of athletics, and the art of ensuring ultimate freedom. But alas, what good is that if, through madness or accident, one or more of the 15,000 existing thermonuclear warheads do what they are all designed to do, namely explode?

For half a century, I have promoted positive lifestyle strategies aimed at getting and staying well, as long as possible. The time that is possible depends on innumerable variables. I will mention only three:

1. Those related to oneself (ie genetics, lifestyle, timely and effective medical care) that are in any way within our control;

2. Those related to nature (ie supervolcanoes, megatsunamis, solar flares, earthquakes, global pandemics, asteroids) over which we have no control; Y

3. One related to human miscalculations (ie thermonuclear explosions) over which existing safeguards are, for a number of reasons, under dubious controls.

Sam Harris, in a recent podcast, described the ever-present threat of nuclear war as the biggest risk we face. The last 75 years that humans have lived with the bomb have been marked by near-suicidal madness, reckless stupidity, and moral forgetfulness. In “The Logic of Doomsday,” Sam and his podcast guests Robert Perry (former Secretary of State) and Lisa Perry discuss the history of nuclear weapons, the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the current threat of accidental nuclear war. , nuclear terrorism, unilateral disarmament, psychology of deterrence, tactical nuclear weapons, cyber security, command and control details, nuclear proliferation, steps we might take toward security, strategic missile defense, nuclear winter, and other topics. I highly recommend this podcast.

Of course, just because the world ends in a week, a day, or a minute doesn’t mean it’s a waste of time to pursue REAL wellness. After all, our luck might hold. For those who follow gun control efforts, the consensus is that it is a miracle that we have dodged the largest bullet imaginable for 75 years. The comic book-worthy Rapture will never happen, but something much worse is much more plausible and not unlikely.

When you look at the facts, you’ll realize it’s almost unbelievable that it hasn’t already happened. The future is very bright, but not in a good way.

It may not seem like it, at first, but being aware of the risks of nuclear war, intentional or accidental, should be on the REAL wellness agenda as a matter of concern. Specifically, in addition to our pursuits of personal well-being, it makes sense to be aware of the risks of nuclear Armageddon and ways in which those risks can be reduced somewhat. Through the policies and politicians we support, we can collectively have some influence, no matter how small our individual efforts.

JFK warned that we must find ways to prevent “that thin thread that holds the nuclear sword of Damocles from being severed by accident, miscalculation, or madness.” He believed that no individual should have the exclusive ability to start a nuclear war on his own.

The heads of state of nine countries (ie the US, UK, Russia, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea) have the power to start such a conflagration. Worse yet, in the country with more nuclear weapons than all other nations put together, our president is the only one with such authority, no one could counter his order to use such weapons. It is little consolation that he considers himself a stable genius, as only he believes in either statement.

FACTS RELATING TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS

* Together, the United States and Russia control more than 90 percent of nuclear warheads, Russia with an estimated 6,500 warheads, the United States with 6,185.

* Between 1945 and 2019, the US conducted 1,030 nuclear tests; Russian 715.

* The US and Russian military budgets for nuclear weapons and nuclear war between 2013 and 2022 reflect the reality that a large-scale conflict between these two countries guarantees mutually assured destruction.

* The Nuclear Security Index ranks North Korea and Iran as the highest risks among nations possessing nuclear material.

The number of parties that control nuclear warheads (currently nine) is a greater concern than the number of warheads, given the unstable nature of world politics.

(Source: Statista, Nuclear Weapons: Statistics and Facts, Erin Duffin, 2/7/20).

THE JUDGMENT CLOCK

Scientists at the University of Chicago who had helped develop the first atomic weapons in 1945 created the Doomsday Clock. They did so using the imagery of the apocalypse (midnight) and the contemporary language of nuclear explosion (countdown to zero). Clock time is based on an annual assessment of threats to humanity and the planet. The decision to move (or leave in place) the Doomsday Clock minute hand is made each year by the Bulletin’s Science and Safety Board in consultation with its Board of Sponsors. The latter includes 13 Nobel laureates. The Clock has become a universally recognized indicator of the world’s vulnerability to catastrophes caused by nuclear weapons, climate change and disruptive technologies in other domains.

It is currently set to 100 seconds for midnight.

INITIAL STEPS THAT COULD REDUCE THE RISKS OF ACCIDENTAL OR OTHER USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS

* No president should have sole and absolute authority to launch nuclear weapons. Donald Trump, on his own, could call up nuclear football, open binders of attack options, and relay orders to the National Military Command Center. The orders would go to the missile control officers (ICBs are ready for rapid-trigger alert) and 30 minutes later there would be explosions on the targets. Eliminating the exclusive power of the president to launch nuclear weapons, committing to not being the first to use them as national policy, eliminating intercontinental ballistic missiles (expensive and essentially useless except for first-strike capability) are all highly favored steps. Other includes:

* Promote public education about the nature and existential risks of a nuclear catastrophe due to miscalculation, technical malfunction and/or political blunders.

* Eliminate work on strategic defenses: According to experts, including Secretary Perry, it won’t be possible to try to distinguish real oncoming missiles from an avalanche of decoys.

* Elect presidents and other leaders who understand these issues and are committed to trying to reduce nuclear risks.

* US policy should be not to wait for treaties to be drawn up and confirmed: begin now to reduce redundant/excessive weapons capacity.

* Support organizations that advance these and other goals, including the San Francisco-based Ploughshares Fund.

Secretary Perry’s granddaughter, Lisa, director of an organization that promotes nuclear weapons reform and containment strategies, says “there is a world where these changes can happen.” Dialogue and subsequent demands as potent as the current rise in racial justice and police reforms are needed to raise awareness of the greater existential threat today than at the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962.

Secretary Perry told Sam Harris on “The Logic of Doomsday” podcast that every day he went to work at the White House during the final days of the Cuban Missile Crisis, he didn’t expect to be alive at the end of the day. . Looking back, the consensus among experts is that the risks of nuclear war during that time were 50/50.

The 50/50 odds that prevailed in 1962 are better than the odds given by experts today that humanity will manage to avoid the catastrophic calamity of nuclear weapons detonations.

Bruce Blair

At the age of 25 in 1972, Bruce Blair was assigned as a Minuteman missile launch officer at Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana. His office was an underground bunker, his job: to execute a nuclear strike if ordered. This experience and years of study, research, and work convinced him that the command and control structures of the major powers presented unnecessary risks of accidental nuclear war. In an article in today’s Washington Post, reporter Emily Langer points out that Dr. Blair devoted the rest of his professional life to reducing the nuclear threat… through a rigorous analysis of the command and control system…

In 1999, Bruce Blair received a MacArthur Genius Scholarship. He was highly regarded by activists as well as military and intelligence officials here and in Moscow. He was in favor of removing weapons from instant-trigger alert status and physically separating warheads from missiles. His goal was to add time to the process to reduce the chance of error. The Washington Post story provided this information:

“During the 2016 presidential campaign, Dr. Blair prepared a letter signed by 10 former nuclear launch control officials stating that they did not believe then-Republican candidate Donald Trump, if elected to the White House, should be given the codes He has proven time and time again to be easily tempted and quick to lash out, disdainful of expert consultation and ill-informed on even basic military and international issues, including, most especially, nuclear weapons, the letter said.Donald Trump should not be the leader of the nation. commander in chief. He shouldn’t be trusted with nuclear launch codes. He shouldn’t have his finger on the button.”

(Source: Emily Langer, Bruce Blair, “Leading Voice For Nuclear Arms Control, Dies at 72,” Washington Post, July 21, 2020).

The Post article is highly recommended, as are other sources of information on the notable Secretary Perry and the late Dr. Bruce Blair.